Predicting Race Outcomes

POSTED BY: Ole Stud

As everyone with more than a passing interest knows, there are many weird things that can foul up an otherwise intelligent prediction. Wrecks, fuel mileage, caution during pit stop windows, weather, tires, track position and other things can all play havoc with an expected finish. I'll talk about these issues in a later post, but for now, let's discuss some things which may get you ahead on your predictions.

Starting position/Qualifying: At plate races, I do not factor starting position at all. Kenseth won it from last this year and you may say it was a fluke, but he had a chance rain or not. On the opposite end of the scale, there are the short tracks, particularly Bristol and Richmond. If you look at past races, the farther back a racer starts, the less likely he will win and we almost always see one of the flukes I listed above that allows a pit strategy to get a poor qualifier to the front.

So that leaves us with the intermediate tracks like this week. Starting position is a factor in my picks but if a team shows something special, I will discount where it starts totally. The danger for a team starting in a poor position is three fold: he can get in someone else's mess easier, he uses his equipment getting to the front, and he has a poorer chance at getting a beneficial pit stall. I'd say the pit selection is one of the biggest reasons a team would want to qualify well. I'd rate starting position a 4 out of 10 on my scale. On any track watch out for the guys who had to go all-out to get into the race because they likely didn't spend much time on race setup.

History: Let's face it, some teams just perform better on certain tracks. I made lots of coin picking Tony Stewart and Bobby LaBonte at Atlanta back when they were driving Pontiacs. A few years ago, even Michael Waltrip could win a race driving a DEI car in a plate race. So I'd rate this factor a 6 on my scale of 10.

Who's Hot Who's Not: I don't really know why but teams who are on a roll tend to keep rolling and it's not hard to spot. The hard part is deciding when the trends will change and they almost always do. Check out Kyle Busch during the Chase segment last year. I rate this factor about a 7 out of 10.

Practice Results: My favorite factor to at least find a sleeper or two and often identify the winner among the favorites. Sometimes you can't always get all the data, but you will always be able to see who was fastest in each practice. I discount every practice until happy hour unless a team is significantly down the chart from where they were. My only exception is that if they are a team that is a go or go home qualifier. The reason you have to watch these changes is because sometimes a team will be so good that they will use the last practice to try new things and those things didn't work. The bad thing is the chart as it stands is not the most reliable practice indicator. I like the 10 lap average speeds, the problem is they are not always posted, so I try to watch happy hour. In the driver interviews, if the driver is dancing around and can't wait to get going, that is an awesome sign of things to come. This is the factor I rate 10 out of 10.