I don't like whiners, so I thought I'd take a few quotes from Talladega to show why I really like some guys and not others.
Now first of all, does anybody know why the drivers collectively have decided to start going 3 wide by 12 deep again at Talladega early in the race? More cars finish the race when they stay a little more spread out. You are still going to have that last 10 lap melee, but at least most cars have a chance to finish, even if it's 3rd like Ryan Neman after Carl tried to park his car in Ryan's engine compartment.
That said, who were the cool guys?
Mark Martin after the crash involving 21 cars about 21 laps in. "Well, I don't know what started it and I'm not going to start complaining because we won last week and these guys will build me a new car that's just as fast, so we'll go get 'em next time." Now that is the epitome of cool and why I have always liked Mark.
Jimmie Johnson after the crash about 3/4 of the way through the race. "It's a shame, I just think there were some guys up there trying to do some things they shouldn't have at that point in the race." Hey Jimmie, weren't you 3 wide about the time it started? Uncool, but you know Jimmie is getting better, at least he's not bring stupid and starting them himself anymore.
Carl Edwards after flipping on the white flag lap coming out of turn 4 for the win was asked if he had any problem with Kesolowski. " Brad was just doing his job trying to win a race, I tried to do my job and block him low and he was there." Pretty good response even though now Carl has done something stupid in the closing laps in the last 2 Talladega races.
My point is, I like the guys who acknowlege mistakes happen, don't blame others and own up to it when they make a mistake.
Drop the rag boys.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Monday, April 20, 2009
Good Day for Old Dogs
Mark Martin WINS!! and.... Harbo after betting on him through 2 blown engines and a blown right front and a wreck and.... finally Mark pays off with a win. Whew!! This reminds me that I was going to write about all the unusal ways a team can lose a race other than just getting beat.
Most unusual that I have seen. A guy running out on the track in the middle of green flag pit stops. Now I was going to use the cauton in the middle of green flag pit stops anyway, but this situation was avoidable. Every team knows that you want to wait as long as possible to pit and this was a perfect example of why. Only 6 cars were still out and the 99 was coming to the pits passed on through so there were only 7 cars on the lead lap. with the lucky dogs for the rest of the race. you only had about 15 teams with any chance at all to win. Don't you hate to see those restarts with all those cars on the end of the lead lap?
Fuel mileage. I hate it when some dog meat car is about to get lapped so he comes in at the end of every caution and tops off. Then the dog meat car has enough gas to finish up when every other team has to stop. I remember Jr amd Jeremy Mayfield benefitting from this scenario in particular.
Or you could be Kyle Busch trying to teach a guy a lesson by slamming him causing your own tire to go flat so you get 2 laps down and you are done. Refer to many episodes with Mr. Smoke for reinforcement of this mindless waste of talent.
How about hot dog wrappers.
And what in the name of additional threading is going on with lug nuts this year?
Speaking of blown engines, I've had a few. Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards, but I seem to have my valve springs straightened out now.
One contributing factor for a teams lack of performance is poor pit stall selection because of poor qualifying, but this isn't to bad because a team has some control over qualifying.
Being in the wrong place at the right time can be real bad. Of course every now and then it is the result a brain fart like last fall at Talladega when the my buddy Carl ran into the Bif and ruined his and several other contenders chance for the championship. How in the hell did Jimmie get through that mess?
So that kind of brings us full circle because we're back at 'Dega this week and you got to wonder what's going to happen.
Speaking of our league. Stotts stay at the top of the heap sure was short lived. If I wanted to bet that he can get back to the top, would I have any takers? I think it would be a better bet that the takers would be unanimous on that deal and I'll withdraw the offer because I don't want that action either. Sorry grasshopper, you've had your 15 minutes.
drop the rag boys.
Most unusual that I have seen. A guy running out on the track in the middle of green flag pit stops. Now I was going to use the cauton in the middle of green flag pit stops anyway, but this situation was avoidable. Every team knows that you want to wait as long as possible to pit and this was a perfect example of why. Only 6 cars were still out and the 99 was coming to the pits passed on through so there were only 7 cars on the lead lap. with the lucky dogs for the rest of the race. you only had about 15 teams with any chance at all to win. Don't you hate to see those restarts with all those cars on the end of the lead lap?
Fuel mileage. I hate it when some dog meat car is about to get lapped so he comes in at the end of every caution and tops off. Then the dog meat car has enough gas to finish up when every other team has to stop. I remember Jr amd Jeremy Mayfield benefitting from this scenario in particular.
Or you could be Kyle Busch trying to teach a guy a lesson by slamming him causing your own tire to go flat so you get 2 laps down and you are done. Refer to many episodes with Mr. Smoke for reinforcement of this mindless waste of talent.
How about hot dog wrappers.
And what in the name of additional threading is going on with lug nuts this year?
Speaking of blown engines, I've had a few. Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards, but I seem to have my valve springs straightened out now.
One contributing factor for a teams lack of performance is poor pit stall selection because of poor qualifying, but this isn't to bad because a team has some control over qualifying.
Being in the wrong place at the right time can be real bad. Of course every now and then it is the result a brain fart like last fall at Talladega when the my buddy Carl ran into the Bif and ruined his and several other contenders chance for the championship. How in the hell did Jimmie get through that mess?
So that kind of brings us full circle because we're back at 'Dega this week and you got to wonder what's going to happen.
Speaking of our league. Stotts stay at the top of the heap sure was short lived. If I wanted to bet that he can get back to the top, would I have any takers? I think it would be a better bet that the takers would be unanimous on that deal and I'll withdraw the offer because I don't want that action either. Sorry grasshopper, you've had your 15 minutes.
drop the rag boys.
Monday, March 2, 2009
U-G-L-Y
Between guys going in the wall (Jimmie and Denny), pit road problems (Jr. and Jeff), blown engines (pick your former or current Rousch driver) and wrecks, I guess there was a race going on. Then Jack Rousch comes out and says it was the tires that caused his engines to blow. Yeah the tires didn't fall off as much so the engines over revved, that's why Matt's engine didn't last 2 laps. Really Jack I'd rather you just said "no comment." Listening to the scanner Biff asks Irwin "did we end up with the same engine as those guys after we talked about it?" Irwin says "yep the powers that be said it would be OK." So I don't know what's up but it wasn't tires, Jack sounded a lot like Smoke on that deal.
Jimmie, Jeff and Denny, three fine drivers on two of the best teams, two of them put it in the wall and one over runs pit road and tears the fender off when the tire blows.
I have to admit, I did a poor job predicting this outcome.
I'm beginning to expect a pit road miscue out of Jr. every week.
So on to Atlanta, anyone shaky on predicting Rousch driver after losing 3 engines?
Despite all that, the owners I predicted at the beginning of the season occupy 7 of the top 12 spots and the guy I told you to watch Bobby LaBonte sits in 10th. No DEI-Ganassi drivers as I stated, but I missed so far on the MWR cars. I still look for Michael and David to fade out, but better than expected so far.
I'll stand by my prediction that most of the chase drivers will come from Rousch, Gibbs and Hendrick.
Old Stud
Jimmie, Jeff and Denny, three fine drivers on two of the best teams, two of them put it in the wall and one over runs pit road and tears the fender off when the tire blows.
I have to admit, I did a poor job predicting this outcome.
I'm beginning to expect a pit road miscue out of Jr. every week.
So on to Atlanta, anyone shaky on predicting Rousch driver after losing 3 engines?
Despite all that, the owners I predicted at the beginning of the season occupy 7 of the top 12 spots and the guy I told you to watch Bobby LaBonte sits in 10th. No DEI-Ganassi drivers as I stated, but I missed so far on the MWR cars. I still look for Michael and David to fade out, but better than expected so far.
I'll stand by my prediction that most of the chase drivers will come from Rousch, Gibbs and Hendrick.
Old Stud
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Out with the new In with the old
Just wondering....
Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon didn't win a race last year. At Fontana, they finished 1-2 and both seemed genuinely ecstatic. Matt remarked on the radio that he has his mojo back. Wonder if it just took these former champions a little longer to adjust to the "new car" because they were so good with the "old car." Seems like Carl, Kyle, Denny and Jimmie were good, Jeff and Matt were just better. Let's see how it pans out.
On another note, after 2 races the Harbos buddies league tightened up, less than 200 points separate the top 11. SJ fell back to earth and some of the rest of you guys showed him how to do it. I noticed no one took my schooling to heart, because you didn't see that Juan Pablo was the best bet on the board.
Old Stud
Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon didn't win a race last year. At Fontana, they finished 1-2 and both seemed genuinely ecstatic. Matt remarked on the radio that he has his mojo back. Wonder if it just took these former champions a little longer to adjust to the "new car" because they were so good with the "old car." Seems like Carl, Kyle, Denny and Jimmie were good, Jeff and Matt were just better. Let's see how it pans out.
On another note, after 2 races the Harbos buddies league tightened up, less than 200 points separate the top 11. SJ fell back to earth and some of the rest of you guys showed him how to do it. I noticed no one took my schooling to heart, because you didn't see that Juan Pablo was the best bet on the board.
Old Stud
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Predicting Race Outcomes
POSTED BY: Ole Stud
As everyone with more than a passing interest knows, there are many weird things that can foul up an otherwise intelligent prediction. Wrecks, fuel mileage, caution during pit stop windows, weather, tires, track position and other things can all play havoc with an expected finish. I'll talk about these issues in a later post, but for now, let's discuss some things which may get you ahead on your predictions.
Starting position/Qualifying: At plate races, I do not factor starting position at all. Kenseth won it from last this year and you may say it was a fluke, but he had a chance rain or not. On the opposite end of the scale, there are the short tracks, particularly Bristol and Richmond. If you look at past races, the farther back a racer starts, the less likely he will win and we almost always see one of the flukes I listed above that allows a pit strategy to get a poor qualifier to the front.
So that leaves us with the intermediate tracks like this week. Starting position is a factor in my picks but if a team shows something special, I will discount where it starts totally. The danger for a team starting in a poor position is three fold: he can get in someone else's mess easier, he uses his equipment getting to the front, and he has a poorer chance at getting a beneficial pit stall. I'd say the pit selection is one of the biggest reasons a team would want to qualify well. I'd rate starting position a 4 out of 10 on my scale. On any track watch out for the guys who had to go all-out to get into the race because they likely didn't spend much time on race setup.
History: Let's face it, some teams just perform better on certain tracks. I made lots of coin picking Tony Stewart and Bobby LaBonte at Atlanta back when they were driving Pontiacs. A few years ago, even Michael Waltrip could win a race driving a DEI car in a plate race. So I'd rate this factor a 6 on my scale of 10.
Who's Hot Who's Not: I don't really know why but teams who are on a roll tend to keep rolling and it's not hard to spot. The hard part is deciding when the trends will change and they almost always do. Check out Kyle Busch during the Chase segment last year. I rate this factor about a 7 out of 10.
Practice Results: My favorite factor to at least find a sleeper or two and often identify the winner among the favorites. Sometimes you can't always get all the data, but you will always be able to see who was fastest in each practice. I discount every practice until happy hour unless a team is significantly down the chart from where they were. My only exception is that if they are a team that is a go or go home qualifier. The reason you have to watch these changes is because sometimes a team will be so good that they will use the last practice to try new things and those things didn't work. The bad thing is the chart as it stands is not the most reliable practice indicator. I like the 10 lap average speeds, the problem is they are not always posted, so I try to watch happy hour. In the driver interviews, if the driver is dancing around and can't wait to get going, that is an awesome sign of things to come. This is the factor I rate 10 out of 10.
As everyone with more than a passing interest knows, there are many weird things that can foul up an otherwise intelligent prediction. Wrecks, fuel mileage, caution during pit stop windows, weather, tires, track position and other things can all play havoc with an expected finish. I'll talk about these issues in a later post, but for now, let's discuss some things which may get you ahead on your predictions.
Starting position/Qualifying: At plate races, I do not factor starting position at all. Kenseth won it from last this year and you may say it was a fluke, but he had a chance rain or not. On the opposite end of the scale, there are the short tracks, particularly Bristol and Richmond. If you look at past races, the farther back a racer starts, the less likely he will win and we almost always see one of the flukes I listed above that allows a pit strategy to get a poor qualifier to the front.
So that leaves us with the intermediate tracks like this week. Starting position is a factor in my picks but if a team shows something special, I will discount where it starts totally. The danger for a team starting in a poor position is three fold: he can get in someone else's mess easier, he uses his equipment getting to the front, and he has a poorer chance at getting a beneficial pit stall. I'd say the pit selection is one of the biggest reasons a team would want to qualify well. I'd rate starting position a 4 out of 10 on my scale. On any track watch out for the guys who had to go all-out to get into the race because they likely didn't spend much time on race setup.
History: Let's face it, some teams just perform better on certain tracks. I made lots of coin picking Tony Stewart and Bobby LaBonte at Atlanta back when they were driving Pontiacs. A few years ago, even Michael Waltrip could win a race driving a DEI car in a plate race. So I'd rate this factor a 6 on my scale of 10.
Who's Hot Who's Not: I don't really know why but teams who are on a roll tend to keep rolling and it's not hard to spot. The hard part is deciding when the trends will change and they almost always do. Check out Kyle Busch during the Chase segment last year. I rate this factor about a 7 out of 10.
Practice Results: My favorite factor to at least find a sleeper or two and often identify the winner among the favorites. Sometimes you can't always get all the data, but you will always be able to see who was fastest in each practice. I discount every practice until happy hour unless a team is significantly down the chart from where they were. My only exception is that if they are a team that is a go or go home qualifier. The reason you have to watch these changes is because sometimes a team will be so good that they will use the last practice to try new things and those things didn't work. The bad thing is the chart as it stands is not the most reliable practice indicator. I like the 10 lap average speeds, the problem is they are not always posted, so I try to watch happy hour. In the driver interviews, if the driver is dancing around and can't wait to get going, that is an awesome sign of things to come. This is the factor I rate 10 out of 10.
Monday, February 16, 2009
The Big One and and Other Nascar Foibles
Well on the big wreck yesterday, the announcers said it was an uncalled for malicious event. Jr. said he didn't mean it. So the bottom line is he was either pissed off at his own incompetence or he ran out of talent and wrecked all the best cars. I say maybe a little of both. Anyway Elliot Sadler ended up leading after the wreck which is proof the wreck created a fluke. Eliott is the nicest no-talent driver this side of Michael Waltrip. I was very excited that Matt won the race though. How is it that JJ had a horrible car but missed the wreck and got a better finish than he deserved.
Speaking of JJ, I noticed that most of the Johnson lovers bailed on him in the fantasy league and that includes the biggest Johnson butt kisser Stotts who I have to continually teach NASCAR lessons to year after year. Also the biggest Johnson/Hendrick junky bailed on all the hendrick entries except for a Rousch reject. Hey, speed that team looks a lot like an old stud team. Our newest Hendrick band wagon jumper didn't believe too much in the hendrick cars he tauts either. My progeny forgot to hit the save roster button and starts out with one foot in Arkansas, of course that's where Mark is from, so that ain't too bad. The best palyers are starting at the bottom, but that's not too unusual, how many times have I exceeded 500 on a plate race?
Overall a good day, the rain made them drive harder for the whole race.
Old Stud
Speaking of JJ, I noticed that most of the Johnson lovers bailed on him in the fantasy league and that includes the biggest Johnson butt kisser Stotts who I have to continually teach NASCAR lessons to year after year. Also the biggest Johnson/Hendrick junky bailed on all the hendrick entries except for a Rousch reject. Hey, speed that team looks a lot like an old stud team. Our newest Hendrick band wagon jumper didn't believe too much in the hendrick cars he tauts either. My progeny forgot to hit the save roster button and starts out with one foot in Arkansas, of course that's where Mark is from, so that ain't too bad. The best palyers are starting at the bottom, but that's not too unusual, how many times have I exceeded 500 on a plate race?
Overall a good day, the rain made them drive harder for the whole race.
Old Stud
Monday, February 9, 2009
My Readers Write Back
Posted by Old Stud
From my tailpipe chasin' Buddy JC:
"After the pole day at Daytona, I would say the "old mare" is some what mistaken by what he has "laid" out about the upcoming season. His Roush-Fenway team may have trouble with the superspeedways. They are kind of like he is.....no staying power..the best RF driver was #16 and the nextbest was #23. All FOUR Hendrick cars (including Jr.) posted top ten runs.....Harbo -- not even a mention of the #88 being a consistent pick for good fantasy numbers--I'm hurt!"
To JC from Old Stud
Since when did qualifying ever indicate who might win the race at Daytona? I believe the winner and runner up last year qualified somewhere in the thirties. Who sat on the pole last year, I don't remember and don't care. Jr. will be a non factor for the championship AGAIN.
Besides, the idea of the article was that those three owners (which included Hendrick) are the ones to beat for the season. How was Carl able to wreck the whole field at Taladega with 10 laps to go if he wasn't in the front? We'll see how the Fantasy thing pans out, have you ever finished ahead of me in any session? I have racked my brains over the years trying to come up with sucker bets so you can win a bet from time to time. By the way, is your dad going to play this year? I need the competition. Why don't you call your team the Washington Generals or the Michael Waltrip tail chaser?
From JC
Ok…big boy…..
My 4 Hendrick cars against your 4 (you pick them) Roush cars…..
I want a case of Corona when my Chevys dust your Fords…..bet?
From Old Stud to JC
Hey how about you stand up and make a bet on YOUR man, Jr. ? You can have him and pick my driver from amoung Biffle, Edwards and Kenseth. I'm not betting against my first favorite Mark Martin, he may win the whole thing, sorry. And since when are you a Hendrick guy, I'll give ya the chevys, but Hendrick.... COME ON MAN talk about your tail pipe suckin' bandwagon jumpers.
From the also ran formerly known as Crankbox:
Nice smack, Stud... You'll see and hear more from me this year. Since Jimmy has pretty much soiled the Gillenwater name, I'll go ahead and live up to everyone's expectations of being obnoxious, sarcastic, in-yo-face-ish, etc... Trust me, it doesn't come naturally to me like it does to him. I'm generally a nice, laid-back, non-confrontational, innocent, baby-of-the-family-type who doesn't have a sarcastic, smack-talkin' bone in his body. Unless I'm pushed....
Don't listen to Roger Schmitt! He swears that the only 'Gillenwater' sibling worth knowing is my sister because she's not obnoxious, smack-mouthy, arrogant, etc... That's not true at all. She's all of those things right along with Jimmy, Mike and me!! Same with my dad. My mom is the only sweet one in the family...
Just remember, I coined the phrase 'Old Stud' for you during my initial Harbo's Buddies season. I got caught in a Sophomore slump last year - but I'm loaded for bear this year. Don't be surprised if you falter, then receive a new, well-deserved, moniker. Kiss Old Stud goodbye after Session 1.
From Old Stud to CrankyBox
I think you'll hold your own. I seem to remember you added a non-applicable qualifier to the Old Stud moniker which appropriately I dropped. Why evaluate after one session, I have been bested by some flash-in-the-pans a few times (very few) in the short term, but I'm always on top over time and those flashes fade away. Get signed up and we'll go at it.
From my tailpipe chasin' Buddy JC:
"After the pole day at Daytona, I would say the "old mare" is some what mistaken by what he has "laid" out about the upcoming season. His Roush-Fenway team may have trouble with the superspeedways. They are kind of like he is.....no staying power..the best RF driver was #16 and the nextbest was #23. All FOUR Hendrick cars (including Jr.) posted top ten runs.....Harbo -- not even a mention of the #88 being a consistent pick for good fantasy numbers--I'm hurt!"
To JC from Old Stud
Since when did qualifying ever indicate who might win the race at Daytona? I believe the winner and runner up last year qualified somewhere in the thirties. Who sat on the pole last year, I don't remember and don't care. Jr. will be a non factor for the championship AGAIN.
Besides, the idea of the article was that those three owners (which included Hendrick) are the ones to beat for the season. How was Carl able to wreck the whole field at Taladega with 10 laps to go if he wasn't in the front? We'll see how the Fantasy thing pans out, have you ever finished ahead of me in any session? I have racked my brains over the years trying to come up with sucker bets so you can win a bet from time to time. By the way, is your dad going to play this year? I need the competition. Why don't you call your team the Washington Generals or the Michael Waltrip tail chaser?
From JC
Ok…big boy…..
My 4 Hendrick cars against your 4 (you pick them) Roush cars…..
I want a case of Corona when my Chevys dust your Fords…..bet?
From Old Stud to JC
Hey how about you stand up and make a bet on YOUR man, Jr. ? You can have him and pick my driver from amoung Biffle, Edwards and Kenseth. I'm not betting against my first favorite Mark Martin, he may win the whole thing, sorry. And since when are you a Hendrick guy, I'll give ya the chevys, but Hendrick.... COME ON MAN talk about your tail pipe suckin' bandwagon jumpers.
From the also ran formerly known as Crankbox:
Nice smack, Stud... You'll see and hear more from me this year. Since Jimmy has pretty much soiled the Gillenwater name, I'll go ahead and live up to everyone's expectations of being obnoxious, sarcastic, in-yo-face-ish, etc... Trust me, it doesn't come naturally to me like it does to him. I'm generally a nice, laid-back, non-confrontational, innocent, baby-of-the-family-type who doesn't have a sarcastic, smack-talkin' bone in his body. Unless I'm pushed....
Don't listen to Roger Schmitt! He swears that the only 'Gillenwater' sibling worth knowing is my sister because she's not obnoxious, smack-mouthy, arrogant, etc... That's not true at all. She's all of those things right along with Jimmy, Mike and me!! Same with my dad. My mom is the only sweet one in the family...
Just remember, I coined the phrase 'Old Stud' for you during my initial Harbo's Buddies season. I got caught in a Sophomore slump last year - but I'm loaded for bear this year. Don't be surprised if you falter, then receive a new, well-deserved, moniker. Kiss Old Stud goodbye after Session 1.
From Old Stud to CrankyBox
I think you'll hold your own. I seem to remember you added a non-applicable qualifier to the Old Stud moniker which appropriately I dropped. Why evaluate after one session, I have been bested by some flash-in-the-pans a few times (very few) in the short term, but I'm always on top over time and those flashes fade away. Get signed up and we'll go at it.
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